Market Statistics


Pagosa Springs Area Association of Realtors website

View detailed statistics reports for the Pagosa Springs Area real estate market


There you will find a plethora of annual, quarterly and even monthly historical reports, including:

Quarterly Local Market Updates

Includes statistics for New Listings, Sold Listings, Median Sales Price, Average Sales Price, Percent of List Recieved, Days on Market, Inventory of Homes for Sale, Months Supply of Inventory v


Select Real Estate Market News Items:


From Lee Riley's Real Estate Report

BY LEE RILEY · JULY 17, 2017


.... As far as the real estate industry, things are cranking in all segments of the market. Overall sales are up 28%. Home sales are up 29%. Condo sales are up 105%. Land sales are up 22%.


Two of the most noticeable changes in the last year are the big jump in condo sales and another big jump in the sales of homes between $750,000 and $1,000,000, which are up 300% over last year at this time. We have so far had seven home sales above $1,000,000 this year, when last year at this time we had zero. The busiest market segment is in the $300,000 to $400,000 range with 45 sales.


The median sale price for homes is now $313,000 compared to $225,000 back in 2014. Days on market for condos was 264 days in 2015 and is 59 days currently. Pending sales are up 42% from this time last year.


There is one other statistic that is normal for this time of year, but it’s something to pay attention to. We have 52 more homes on the market today than we had a month ago.


The bottom line is that the residential market is almost back to the good old days of 2007 and 2008. Vacant land is improving, but still lingering behind.


Lee Riley is an associate broker with Jann C.Pitcher Real Estate.

This article was posted on Link to original article.


From Mike Heraty's Mid-Year Real Estate Report

BY Mike Heraty · JULY 5, 2017


We are half way through the current year and a third of the way into the summer, here in Southwest Colorado. The first quarter real estate market data showed significant improvements over the same period of 2016. The figures tallied and analyzed for the first half of 2017 are even more impressive. Total residential closed sales volume hit $75,449,000, an increase of 70% over the $44,465,000 recorded for the same period in the prior year. The total number of homes sold hit 221 for the first six months of this year, as compared to 163 units closed during the first half of 2016, an increase of 36%. We have been very busy from January forward this year, which is unusual.


Single Family Stick-Built Detached Homes:
With the increase in sales activity, prices have also moved up. The “Stick-Built” single family detached homes, the average home sold for $183 per square foot during the first half of the year. For the same period in the prior year, the average home sold for $157 per square foot, showing an increase in value of 16%. The Median Selling Price for this type of home hit $325,000, an 11% rise over the first half of 2016.


Condos and Townhomes:
The total sales volume for condos and townhomes for the first half of this year was $7,410,000, an increase of 113% over the prior year’s first half volume. The total number of units sold was up 105%, while interestingly, the average selling price per square foot increased barely 1% at $130, versus $128 per square foot a year earlier.


Looking Forward:
Several forces are driving prices and buying activity. First, within certain price brackets there is a very limited supply of existing homes and new home construction has not been able to satisfy demand. Costs for new home construction have risen as land costs, wages, building materials and soft costs have all increased. The average selling price per square foot for homes built in the last two years has averaged $195, as compared to $178 a year earlier, representing an increase of 9.5%.


Second, mortgage rates have remained relatively low and government backed loan program qualifying guidelines have eased, though only slightly. Low interest rates, an improving national economy and friendly stock market returns have all worked to improve consumer confidence–an essential ingredient in resort housing market performance.


Third, prices in many other mountain markets have put property ownership out of reach for some buyers and they have found the Pagosa Springs area to offer a better value, with exceptional outdoor recreational resources in a friendly and safe small-town environment. This pressure has also fueled price appreciation.

Where are the best values in the current market? Existing upper-end homes ($500,000 and higher) can be purchased today at a significant discount to the cost of new construction. If you are looking for a home in the $200,000-$300,000 price range, you have little bargaining power.


There is limited inventory and many qualified buyers...


Mike Heraty is Managing Broker and Owner of Pagosa Source Real Estate Advisors and has over 30 years experience in the real estate profession.

This article was posted on Link to original article.


From Lee Riley's Real Estate Report



.... The real estate market is hot. It’s the best we’ve seen in the past 10 years. Total sales are up 25%. Home sales are up 33%. Condo sales are up 76%. Land sales are up 15%. Combine these numbers with lower inventory, and higher prices are happening across the board.


Sales for the month of May were up 40% over last May. Pending sales remain at historically high levels. We’ve currently got 148 deals in the hopper compared to 88 last year at this time. You can see the trends in these graphs:




The most noticeable change in sales was in the $750,000 to $1,000,000 range, which was up 600% over last year. Another stat that stuck out was 53% less inventory in the price range of $250,000 to $300,000. Overall, the numbers are good for sellers, and the lack of inventory is driving the bus.


Lee Riley is an associate broker with Jann C.Pitcher Real Estate.

This article was posted on Link to original article .


From Lee Riley's Real Estate Report

BY LEE RILEY · April 12, 2017


... The big news this month is the strength of the real estate market. Sales are way up, and inventory is way down. The most noticeable change is in the condo and townhome market. We’ve had three times as many condo sales this year as we did last year at this time. Condo inventory is way down as well — 39% from last year. There are currently only 32 condos on the market, and nine of those are under contract.

If you own a condo or a townhome, this could be a great time to sell.


Home sales are up 24% and inventory is down 27%. Except for homes priced below $200,000, sales are up. The reason sales under $200,000 are down is there is almost nothing available there to buy! Homes with the most sales so far in 2017 are in the $300,000 to $400,000 price range. We’ve had 18 sold in this price range, compared to 13 last year and just 5 back in 2014. Vacant land sales are flat. Overall sales are up 22%.


The second piece of good news for sellers is pending sales are way up as well. Currently we have 154 sales in the hopper, compared with 103 at this time last year.


How about a third piece of good news? Interest rates have come back down somewhat. A 30-year fixed mortgage is at 4.125%, which is down from about 4.375% a few weeks ago. All of these factors mean that prices, especially in the lower range, are going up.


Now for the bad news: along with higher prices, there is a lack of inventory for buyers to choose from. There are a couple of wild-card factors that may bring more inventory into the market. The first is construction of spec homes. These are homes which builders build on “speculation” that a buyer will come along once it is complete. There have been 21 new home construction permits issued so far this year, compared to 11 at this time last year, but it is hard to say how many of those are being built on spec. The second factor is homeowners who have been holding on to their property because they have owed more than their home is worth up until now. These people mostly bought homes between 2005 and early 2008. They may decide to sell now that they can do so without taking a loss. We need both of these sources of new inventory to kick in, or we will see sales start to slow down as we move through the year.


Lee Riley is an associate broker with Jann C.Pitcher Real Estate.

This article was posted on Link to original article .


From Lee Riley's Real Estate Report



....  Keep in mind this is a small sampling with just one month in the books. Sales are up in almost every category. Overall sales are up 40% from this time last year. The bulk of these sales are a carry-over from 2016 pending sales. Pending sales right now are way up from 2016. We have 85 in the hopper versus 50 last year.


The elephant in the room is lack of inventory. Home inventory is down 29% and condo inventory is down 21%. Total residential inventory is less than half of what we had in 2014. My prediction is sales will be up for the next month or two, and then lack of supply will slow down the machine. Hopefully, we will have a larger crop of new listings, which could be the result of a tougher than normal winter.


Prices are going to head up, especially in the lower price range.


Another thing to watch for is the Trump effect regarding energy exploration in Texas and Oklahoma, as well as Durango and Farmington. If the oil and gas business cranks up again, this will be good for business. We have to wait and see.


Lee Riley is an associate broker with Jann C.Pitcher Real Estate.

This article was posted on Link to original article .


From Lee Riley's Real Estate Report



... As I look out my window, I see a winter wonderland. It’s been snowing for days, which is great news for all the visitors who have been here over the holidays skiing, snowmobiling, and playing in the snow. Town has been very busy, with all the hotels, restaurants, bars, and shops going strong. This is just what we needed going into 2017. Last year’s sales tax revenues ended the year up 10%, which is great news for our local economy.


...Turning to the real estate market, my prediction for 2017 is that interest rates are going to rise. Rates were down to 3.5% a couple months ago and have since risen to about 4.25%. I predict we’ll see further increases to the 4.5% to 4.75% range. This will increase the cost of housing and will keep some folks from being able to afford homes. But in other cases it will prime the pump, as people who have been sitting on the sidelines will be spurred into action as the cost of housing continues to go up.

My prediction is for median home prices to go up 10% — last year we saw an 8% increase. I expect the number of sales to be flat or maybe even down a little. All of these trends will be due to a lack of inventory. I also believe that the extremely low land prices we’ve been seeing the past couple years will start to go away. Anything currently valued below $25,000 will see a decent increase.


Due to the current lack of inventory, I expect quite a few spec homes will be built this year. As land prices increase, the overall cost of these spec homes will rise. I also predict that somebody will get on board and start building some rental properties. We have a severe shortage of rentals right now, especially long-term rentals. Someone is going to step up and fill that need.


I’m going to include several year-end charts this month that will summarize how the market is changing over the long term. First we’ll look at sales numbers. This chart shows the number of completed sales in each category over the last 13 years:


Pagosa Springs real estate sales past 13 years



And then the same idea, but looking only at the last 5 years:


Pagosa Springs real estate sales past 5 years


Next we’ll look at prices. In order to track prices accurately, you must pick fairly specific criteria to describe a certain kind of home. Then you track the sales that fit this criteria over the years to see how prices are changing. To represent a typical home in Pagosa Springs, I have chosen a 3-bedroom, 2-bath, 2-car garage home in Pagosa Lakes on less than 1/-2 acre:


Pagosa Springs median home price historical


For vacant land, I have chosen lots of less than 1/2-acre located in Pagosa Lakes:


Pagosa Springs vacant lot sales historical


For condos, we have to cast the net a little wider. There are relatively few condo sales in Pagosa, so we have to look at all the sales together in order to have a large enough sample size to get meaningful data:


Pagosa Sprins condo sales historical


Lee Riley is an associate broker with Jann C.Pitcher Real Estate.

This article was posted on Link to original article .


From Mike Heraty's Year End Real Estate Report


Condo prices led the Archuleta County real estate market during 2016.

Condo and townhome sales showed real strength, with volume was up over 25% from 2015, and the total number of units sold up nearly 16%. What is more impressive is the increase in the average selling price per square foot, $138 versus $114, an increase of 21% for the year. In 2012, the average selling price per square foot for condos and townhomes was $91 indicating an increase of 53% or an average of 13% per year. This category of our real estate market has out-performed the single family detached sales by quite a margin. Will this continue to be the case going forward? Possibly.


Looking at the broadest measurement, the overall market was ahead of 2015. Total real estate sales recorded through our local MLS system showed an increase year over year of 8.2% in the number of properties sold. The Total Dollar Volume of $148,515,994 was up just over 6% above 2015.


The total sales of single family homes sales ($114,867,448) was up over 16% and the total number of homes sold was up 13% over 2015. So, while the aggregate numbers for single family home sales are quite positive, there was very little increase in the average selling price per square foot. For 2015, homes sold for an average of $164.40, while the average for 2016 was $166, an increase of less than 1%. But, in the years between 2012 and 2015 we saw considerably more value appreciation — in 2012 the Median Price was $ 217,000 and the average selling price per square foot was $120.76 an increase of 37.5% over the last four years, or an average of 9.4% per year. Newly constructed homes sold for an average of $178 during 2016, a slight increase above the average for the prior year.


While the strongest price category for single family homes was $200,000-$300,000, there was plenty of demand for housing priced under $200,000 but a very limited and dwindling supply. A number of those Buyers opted to acquire condos and townhomes as they found themselves priced out of the market for single family detached homes. So, strong demand for housing under $200,000 moved up the average condo selling price per square foot. We should would expect this to continue until the price of existing homes more closely approaches the cost of new construction.


2017 will be an interesting year as the community continues to explore potential solutions to our workforce housing needs and the supply of entry level priced housing continues to shrink. The Town of Pagosa Springs Planning Department is revising its Comprehensive Plan, which will hopefully address the extremely high impact fees levied for new development. We are hopeful the Town Council will not approve the proposed tax-payer funded $7 million 5th Street Bridge Project while there are so many other worthwhile infrastructure improvement needs. We could see a decision on this by Tuesday, January 3.


We may see a boost in demand for vacation homes if the federal income tax cuts Trump has proposed go into effect providing more household income and higher consumer confidence—two key factors that fuel demand for second homes and tourism spending. The other factor that could come into play is the price of oil. If the economy in the oil industry improves, Pagosa can expect to see a return of more visitors from West Texas which have been a significant element in the second home market in Pagosa Springs over the last thirty years.


Mike Heraty is Managing Broker and Owner of Pagosa Source Real Estate Advisors and has over 30 years experience in the real estate profession.

This article was posted on Link to original article .


From Lee Riley's December Newsletter

BY Lee Riley --- December 2016


.... Now for the latest real estate news. A lot of the pending sales closed last month. Residential sales jumped from +11% in November to +15% this month. Overall sales rose from +10% to +12%. After looking over the stats, I see two categories showing the biggest increases. Home sales between $300,000 and $400,000 are up 51% over last year at this time. Sales of vacant lots between one-half acre and three acres are up 41% over last year. Lots in this category are usually Aspen Springs lots, with a few larger Pagosa Lakes lots mixed in. New home construction permits are up as well, with 111 this year compared to 88 last year at this time.


The other news of "interest" is interest rates, which jumped up a half percent overnight. This was a result of Donald Trump's surprise win in the election. Rates for a 30-year fixed mortgage are now at 4.375%.

What caused the big jump? I was curious, so I spoke to three bankers and two financial advisers. This is what I'm hearing:

Rates were at historic lows around 3.5% due to concerns about the global economy including China, Brazil, and the U.K.'s pending exit from the European Union. The turnaround has been fueled by anticipation that Trump will cut corporate taxes and spend trillions of dollars on infrastructure, both of which may lead to higher corporate profits. This led to increased bond yields, which in turn increases interest rates. There is also growing concern about inflation.


This entry was posted on Lee Riley's website. Link to the newsletter.


Pagosa’s Summer Real Estate Results, a Mixed Bag

BY MIKE HERATY _____August 22, 2016


It has been an interesting summer for the real estate world in Pagosa Springs. Overall sales activity is up slightly as measured against the prior 12 months. 2016 is a bit ahead of 2015 for the total number of properties sold, with the total dollar volume of closed sales up nearly 5% above the prior year. For all property types (building lots, acreage, commercial, ranch, single family, condos, etc.) the average selling price was down 2.5% over the prior year.


These numbers summarize the broad performance of all components of real estate sales within Archuleta County.


Homes sales activity is the measure that typically attracts the most attention. For my analysis, I track the sales activity of single family detached homes as a market benchmark. This excludes condos, townhomes, duplexes, modular and manufactured homes. (I look at condos, townhomes, duplexes, manufactured homes separately.)


The number of homes sold is up over 10%. There have been 151 homes sold so far this year versus 137 for the same period in 2015. Total closed sales dollar volume is up 10% above 2015 at $50,235,841. The average selling price of $332,687 is nearly unchanged from 2015 while the Median Selling Price of $297,500 is up 6.4% above last year. 75 of the sold homes were under $300,000.


For most of you who follow the local market, these figures are probably not surprising, but they should not be considered the only important indicators of what is happening within the local housing market. True, there are more spec homes under construction and most are selling quickly, but, there is a narrow price band of robust market activity that may distort the reality of the market as a whole.


When you cross into the $500,000+ price ranges the level of supply significantly outpaces demand as shown below. What are the factors that are impacting this imbalance?


First, there have been changes in the buying preferences of both primary and second home buyers over the last several years. More buyers are choosing smaller homes and lowering their financial investment for vacation and primary residences. We also see this change from the next wave of housing consumers. Unlike many Baby Boomers that are now aging out of the housing market, younger buyers in second home markets are not choosing the larger, more expensive homes their parents chose. This is a change we are seeing across many of the second home and resort markets across the country.


Second, the market in Southwest Colorado has been impacted energy prices. Pagosa Springs has always benefitted from our visitors and second home buyers from Texas and other nearby energy states. An increasing number of households with a significant portion of wealth and income tied to oil and gas are choosing to postpone plans for a second home or cabin in the mountains of southwest Colorado. When oil recovers they will return, but until then we can expect to carry a higher level of unsold home inventory, especially in the upper middle and high-end of the price ranges.


Third, I suggest there are some buyers that are holding off their purchase plans until the outcome of the November elections are known. This is a hard factor to quantify, but I can attest to the fact that a fair number of upper-end Buyers I have communicated with this summer have decided to wait until next year so that they can first assess the impact of the elections on their tax burden and discretionary income. How much change we will see after November is anyone’s guess.


Average Annual Number Homes Sold (based on last 5 Years): 271


Listing Inventories:

$200,000-$300,000: 67 Active Listings = 10 month supply
$300,000-$500,000: 90 Active Listings = 16 month supply
$500,000-$750,000: 53 Active Listings = 29 month supply
$750,000-$1,000,000: 35 Active Listings = 76 month supply
$1,000,000 plus: 49 Active Listings = 106 month supply


Mike Heraty is Managing Broker and Owner of Pagosa Source Real Estate Advisors and has over 30 years experience in the real estate profession.

This article was posted on Link to original article .


From THE RILEY REPORT: Lack of Home Inventory

by Lee Riley · March 9, 2016


... Now for what’s happening in the local real estate market. The elephant in the room is the lack of inventory, especially in the lower price ranges. Residential inventory is down 30%. Condo and townhome inventory is down 23%. Among homes priced below $300,000, we’ve got just 51% of the inventory available last year at this time.


The mid-price inventory from $300,000 to $500,000 is only a little higher, but still just 62% of what was available last year at this time. Vacant land inventory is down as well, but we’ve got such a huge oversupply that it doesn’t make any difference. This is all good news for sellers because prices are rising in the under $500,000 range.


This article was posted on Link to original article .


From THE RILEY REPORT: Real Estate Sales Numbers Up in 2015

by Lee Riley · January 19, 2016


... we ended the year with sales up 20% over last year.

... Most folks don’t care much about these details. They just want to know if real estate prices are going up or down. To answer this question, we take a very specific type of property and then track the price over the years. The two types you’ll see here are small lots in the Pagosa Lakes area, and homes with three bedrooms, two baths, and two car garages situated on small lots in Pagosa Lakes. Because we are tracking the exact same type of property over the years, this is a much more accurate reflection of real world real estate prices.


vacant lland sales


median home sales


I feel very fortunate that I had a very strong year in real estate sales in 2015. I helped to sell 84 different properties last year, which is about 11% of the market in the whole county. Not bad for an old guy, especially considering there are now 95 Realtors in Pagosa Springs.


This article was posted on Link to original article .


2015 Year End Real Estate Report

BY MIKE HERATY _____December 31, 2015


As 2015 comes to a close, market data confirms the real estate recovery is continuing in southwest Colorado. For the year, Total Closed Sales of all real estate categories showed an increase of 4.6% in dollar volume over 2014, totaling just under $142 million for the year. In terms of the Total Number of Closed Transactions, 2015 showed an increase of 17.5% over the prior year. This quick summary indicates more properties are moving and more dollars are changing hands in the local market.


Single Family Homes
Figures for the single family home market showed an increase of 10.1% from 2014, with a total of $100,431,191 in Closed Sales of 287 homes. This compared to Total Closed Sales of $86,742,931 and 272 homes for 2014. Homes took less time to sell in 2015 than 2014, showing stronger demand within the local market. The Median Selling Price for single family detached homes also increased during 2015 to $288,000, an increase of 7.7% over 2014.


Condos and Townhomes
Closed Sales for condos and townhomes during 2015 were up nearly 27% over the prior year with $11.6 million in volume for 71 units. The Median Price for Condos and Townhomes during 2015 remained unchanged from 2014. The increase in condo and townhome volume is in part due to the low level of inventory in lower price ranges. During 2015 there was a shortage of homes priced under $200,000 while demand was still strong. Some of these Buyers moved into the condo and townhome market to acquire a home while interest rates remain low. The combined sales of single family detached homes and condos and townhomes accounted for 83% of the entire real estate closed sales volume for the year.


Land sales also improved during 2015, recording Total Closed Volume of $19.3 million as compared to $18.3 million for 2014, an increase of 6%, with an increase of 33.5% in the number of closings; 311 versus 233 during 2015. The Median Selling Price dropped only slightly over the prior year. Builders reported increased volume for 2015 and initial signs look encouraging for 2016 from what we are hearing from architects and planners.


Mortgage Rates and the Year Ahead
Cheap money continues to be available for qualified borrowers. During 2015, the average interest rate for 30 year FNMA mortgages was at 3.97%, up only slightly from the average rate during 2014 of 3.93%–still very low on a historical basis. Forecasts for 2016 range from 3.8%-4.4%, according to FNMA and long term bond rate forecasts. This slight trend upward may increase demand slightly as first time homebuyers rush to acquire ahead of the rise and is expected to have only a minor effect on overall housing demand during 2016. We expect the market to continue to improve in 2016, though not across all sectors. There remains an over-supply of housing inventory within some price ranges, and a shortage of homes in the entry level price range: $175,000-$250,000.


Market data provided by CREN, local MLS stats and proprietary company property records database, all deemed reliable, however, if specific data is an important criteria for a read decision, figures should be independently verified.


Mike Heraty is Managing Broker and Owner of Pagosa Source Real Estate Advisors and has over 30 years experience in the real estate profession.

This article was posted on Link to original article .


From Lee Riley's Real Estate Report:

November 13, 2015

.... As for real estate, there was not much change last month. We’ve sold the same number of homes this year as we did last year at the same time. One bright spot in the home market is the $500,000 to $750,000 range, which is up 73% over last year.


Overall sales are up 19% thanks to strong townhome and vacant land sales.

Townhome sales are up 40% and vacant land sales are up 35%, with inventory down across the board. Commercial sales are strong as well, with the total number of sales nearly tripling last year. We should see strong numbers going into the end of the year because pending sales are now at 102 versus 70 last year at the same time.


Overall we’re seeing steady improvement, partly thanks to interest rates still in the 4% range. Building permits have increased. We’ve had 85 new home construction permits and 231 permits overall this year. Last year at this time we had 58 new home permits and 240 overall. This means the local contractors are building a few more brand new homes and a few less decks and sheds.


Lee Riley is an associate broker with Jann C.Pitcher Real Estate.

This article was posted on Link to original article .


From Lee Riley's Real Estate Report:

JUNE 23, 2015

.... Moving on to real estate, overall sales are up 21% over last year at this time. The residential market slowed slightly in June, falling from +13% last month to +4% this month. There are two residential markets out there, and $400,000 is the dividing line. 87% of home sales are under $400,000, but they represent 44% of the inventory. The other 13% of home sales are above $400,000, where you’ll find 56% of the inventory.

The hottest part of the market is vacant land, which continues to benefit from low prices. Vacant land prices are still at 2004 levels, but the good news is we’re starting to see prices rise and inventory come down.


Pending deals are not quite at the record-breaking peak they were a month ago, but we’re still above the number from the same time last year.


Interest rates are currently at 4.125% for a 30-year fixed loan and 3.375% for a 15-year fixed. Building permits are up slightly, with 39 new home permits this year versus 31 at this time last year.


Lee Riley is an associate broker with Jann C.Pitcher Real Estate.

This article was posted on Link to original article .


THE BOTTOM LINE: Real Estate Report from Jim Smith

BY JIM SMITH · JUNE 23, 2015


A simple equation.

Home Median Sale Prices Recovering = Opportunity


median home price June 2015


Since 2007, single family homes in the Pagosa Springs area suffered dramatic declines in their median sales price until 2012. The graph below shows that 2012 displayed the first signs of the recovery we are currently enjoying. The median sales price of a home in the Pagosa Springs area has been slowly but steadily improving since then. But the median sales price is still only 83% of what is was in 2007.


What does this indicate? I think that the numbers indicate that a recovery in our local real estate market is strong. Barring some unknown disaster, it should steadily continue to improve. And I think there is a lot of room for growth in the value of homes in the Pagosa Springs area.


Bottom Line: The median sales price of a single family home is growing, but it is not back to what it was in 2007.

This leaves a great opportunity for those looking to purchase in the Pagosa Springs area to enjoy a steady increase in the value of their home if they purchase now – barring negative events.


Jim Smith is Managing Broker and Owner of Jim Smith Realty.

This article was posted on Link to original article .


From Lee Riley’s Real Estate Report

By Lee Riley · JUNE 8, 2015

... In real estate news, I am just as busy as I was before the big crash in 2007. This is good news for sellers, and it’s also good news for the local economy. Overall sales are up 23% over last year at this time, with vacant land leading the way at +33%. Buyers are picking up vacant land at bargain basement prices, which are similar right now to the prices we last saw in 2004. Inventory is almost at its peak for the year. Sellers are putting properties back on the market, and the best values are the properties left over from last year. This year’s new inventory has been priced up due to improving market conditions and a general sense of optimism.


Lee Riley is an associate broker with Jann C.Pitcher Real Estate.

Link to original article


From Lee Riley’s Real Estate Report

BY LEE RILEY · MAY 11, 2015


.... Now, on to real estate. The market’s strength continues. Overall sales are up 20% compared to this time last year. There are a few surprises. A month ago we had an unusually large number of pending sales, but many of them did not close. Now, pending sales are at historic highs.


Pending sales May 2015


The latest reading of 88 pending transactions is the highest I have seen since I started formally tracking the number four years ago. If these deals close on schedule, May should be a very strong month. Home sales in the $150,000 to $400,000 range are strongest, and inventory is shrinking accordingly. The $400,000 to $500,000 range is flat, and inventory is up 56%. Condo sales are strong at 67% above last year, and the inventory is way down. Vacant land sales are up slightly at 9%, and the inventory is growing as more people become optimistic about their chances of selling their property


Overall, April was a good month. Interest rates are holding steady at 4.125% for a 30-year fixed and 3.375% for a 15-year fixed. Building permits have increased from 14 last year to 20 this year, and most of the contractors are staying busy. In fact, our whole local economy seems to be doing well.


Lee Riley is an associate broker with Jann C.Pitcher Real Estate.

Link to original article


From Lee Riley’s Real Estate Report

by Lee Riley  · JANUARY 14, 2015


Happy New Year From Pagosa Country!

2014 turned out to be a very good year. I just conducted my unofficial survey of our business community by walking around town, as well as stopping by the Chamber of Commerce. Almost without exception, I heard the holiday season was prosperous for one and all. These local findings closely mirror the national situation. Consumer confidence is up and the public is opening up their wallets. As an added bonus, gas prices are very low.


... As far as real estate goes, sales are up 15% and inventory is down. From a ‘supply and demand’ perspective, this should allow prices to rise. So far we are not seeing huge price increases, but we are definitely headed in the right direction. For now, it is still a buyer’s market.


Interest rates continue to stay low. Today you can get a 30-year fixed mortgage at 3.75%. Each year we hear that the rates are going to go up, but then some outside force keeps them low.


Another improving trend is the local construction business. Each year we are building more homes. This year the building department reported 65 permits for new home construction compared to 60 last year. When you look back at the peak in 2006, there were 230 permits pulled that year. To see the full history, check out the bottom row of my stats spreadsheet.


graph 5 year sales Pagosa Springs area real estate


median home sales 5 year history Pagosa Springs CO


median closing price vacant land 5 year history Pagosa Springs CO


... Real estate sales are a very lopsided set of data. Pagosa Springs saw 9 sales above $1,000,000 last year. The other 603 sales were below $1,000,000. The average would be skewed quite a bit higher by these 9 sales in a way that the median is not. The median better reflects the “middle” of the set, so you’ll notice that I always use median in my stats spreadsheet.


We have now had three years in a row of steadily increasing numbers. Sales numbers bottomed out in 2009 and then prices bottomed out a couple years later around 2011. Now we seem to be back on track with slow but steady gains across most categories. My prediction for 2015 is more of the same – nothing dramatic, but steady improvement. I look forward to serving all of you any way I can over the next year. Please contact me if I can be of service.


Lee Riley is an associate broker with Jann C.Pitcher Real Estate.

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Real Estate Sales Up 766 Percent for 2015

By Mike Heraty · JANUARY 9, 2015


According to January real estate statistics, Total Closed Volume for 2015 year-to-date sales in Pagosa Springs is $1,637,500 … as compared to just $189,000 for the first 8 days of 2014 … an increase of over 766%.

The total number of closings was up by 100% with 4 reported so far this year against only 2 closings for the same period of 2014.


We don’t want to take too much away from this very limited measurement of the market. It really demonstrates how making assumptions or declaring trends too early or based on too little data can be misleading, or worse, it reminds us how statistics can be used to purposely deceive people. (For more detail on that subject, see ‘How Statistics Lie’ at this website.)


Still, we welcome this positive change — relative to last year — and hope this early sign of improved momentum will continue. In all likelihood, our market will have a tough time continuing on this comparative level of performance, but perhaps overall things are heading up — as I reported in my ‘Year End Real Estate Report and Future Forecast’ in the Daily Post.


Mike Heraty is Managing Broker and Owner of Pagosa Source Real Estate Advisors 

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2014 Pagosa Real Estate Summary… and Future Forecast

By Mike Heraty - December 26, 2014

Starting with the bigger picture, things look brighter as we peer into 2015.


From the information coming from the National Association of Homebuilders (NAHB) and National Association of Realtors, (NAR) it sounds like the nation’s real residential real estate economy will improve further during 2015. Both these national trade groups feel the numbers will look better as more first-time homebuyers enter the housing market and better job creation numbers are achieved.


According to the NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe, “Single-family [home] builders are feeling good. They are not overly confident, but confident enough to keep moving forward.”


Crowe goes on to say: “This is mostly due to significant pent-up demand and steady job and economic growth that will allow trade-up buyers who have delayed home purchases due to job insecurity to enter the marketplace.”


Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist for NAR was equally optimistic when he addressed the Annual Convention in New Orleans last month:


“The improving job market has consumers feeling more confident, and the rebound in home prices is building household wealth for homeowners and giving them the ability to sell after waiting the last few years.” Yun was careful to add that the housing market does have some headwinds out ahead, in the form of a likelihood of increasing interest rates the second half of next year, tight credit requirements, and student loan debt. Still, overall the forecast at the national level looks encouraging.


Pagosa Springs’ market behavior is somewhat different from most urban real estate economies, due to the heavy influence of our second home owners. These Buyers and Sellers are not driven by job relocation in their real estate decisions, more by their confidence in the economy and their jobs or businesses, their discretionary income and savings, the health of the housing market in their home community and their lifestyle preferences. (More about the areas with better economies and housing markets in our next article).


Pagosa Springs has much to offer folks that enjoy snow skiing, snowmobiling, soaking in the Hot Springs, exploring Mesa Verde, rafting down the San Juan River, boating on Navajo Reservoir, hiking in the Weminuche Wilderness, enjoying a day trip to Durango, trail riding, fishing and golfing. Then again, lots of other mountain communities have many wonderful outdoor resources. It is our particular combination of recreational opportunities, our small, friendly and safe mountain town, good values in real estate inventory, that a certain segment of the second home buyers find appealing in Pagosa when compared to other choices in the Rocky Mountain Region.


For the year, closed real estate transactions totaled just under $128 million, as compared to $114 million for 2013. This is an increase of just over 12%. Total single family home closings for the year totaled $84 million, up 5% from 2013. The average home selling price dropped only slightly from $319,000 to $316,000 for 2014.


As we enter 2015, there are plenty of single family homes, condos and townhomes for Buyers to choose from in the MLS listing inventory. Levels remain above the ten-year average with 292 existing homes for sale at year end. This compares with 277 at the end of 2013. As far as the number of new home building permits for 2014… we are back up to the levels we were at in 2008, inching up to 64 from 59 in the prior year. By the way, for Buyers considering putting off a purchase until spring or summer of 2015 — think again. Some of my most successful clients always buy in the winter — fewer competing Buyers, and more motivated Sellers.


With a refreshingly new energy iin the local political and municipal leadership and management, a growing collaborative spirit among community groups, including the School Board, Chamber of Commerce, Town Tourism Committee and Economic Development Committee, there is much to be optimistic about in the Pagosa Springs area. A slowly growing enthusiasm and positive attitude is gaining strength within the local business community. Are there a few issues floating about that could create some surprises? Yes, as always, the global economy and political environment could derail a number of things. But, those are risks we all live with. Keep your eyes, ears and minds open as we enter the New Year — good things will be happening!


Note: Information compiled from CREN PSAAR MLS data and may not reflect the entire number of transactions recorded in Archuleta County.


Mike Heraty is Managing Broker and Owner of Pagosa Source Real Estate Advisors 

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Excerpts from Lee Riley's Report - December 2014:

....Now, what’s going on in the real estate world? Business continues to improve. Overall sales are up 15% over last year. Condo sales are quite strong.


Home sales in the $300,000 to $400,000 range are up 47% over last year, and vacant land sales are also strong. Bank repos are almost non-existent with the exception of vacant land. While the market continues to improve, it is still not enough to tip the scales in favor of the seller. We are still in a buyer’s market.


Lee Riley is an associate broker with Jann C.Pitcher Real Estate.

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